Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria and other African countries to urgently rethink their heavy dependence on fossil fuels.
In an analysis of the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, Olamide Martins who is Associate Director, Extractives and Environment at Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa, CAPPA warned that disruptions in global oil supply could significantly affect vulnerable, oil-dependent economies across Africa.
Martins said the crisis has already triggered a surge in oil prices and exposed the fragility of global energy systems.
He pointed to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow corridor through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, warning that any prolonged disruption could push global crude prices above $100 per barrel.
According to him, such volatility could have severe consequences for African economies, particularly oil-importing nations like Kenya, Ghana and Uganda, which may face rising transportation and production costs, as well as increased food inflation.
While oil-exporting countries may benefit temporarily from higher prices, Martins said their reliance on fossil fuel revenues leaves them equally exposed to external shocks.
“The reliance on fossil fuels for Africa as the main source of energy and revenue leaves the continent at the mercy of geopolitical crises beyond its borders,” he noted.
Martins argued that the situation underscores the urgent need for Africa to accelerate its transition to renewable energy sources.
He highlighted the continent’s vast renewable energy potential, from solar resources across the Sahel region to wind along coastal areas and hydroelectric capacity in the Congo Basin, saying these resources could significantly reduce dependence on imported fuels.
He also called for stronger commitment to initiatives such as the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), which aims to expand clean energy access across the continent.
Beyond energy security, Martins said investments in renewable infrastructure could stimulate economic diversification through emerging sectors such as green hydrogen and other clean technologies, creating jobs and strengthening local industries.
For Nigeria, he said recent global disruptions, from the COVID-19 pandemic to current geopolitical conflicts should prompt a reassessment of development priorities and fiscal strategies tied to oil revenues.
According to him, the country must develop long-term financing frameworks that reduce exposure to global oil price fluctuations and redirect investments toward sustainable economic sectors.
Martins concluded that Africa’s vulnerability to global oil shocks is not inevitable but rather a policy choice, urging leaders across the continent to prioritise sustainable industrialisation and clean energy as the pathway to long-term resilience and economic independence.
